Iranian Journal of Medical Sciences

Status of Measles Elimination from the Reported Outbreaks: Fars Province, 2001–03

Document Type : Original Article(s)

Author

Abstract
Background: The status of measles elimination is best summarized by evaluation of the effective reproduction number R; maintaining R < 1 is necessary and sufficient to achieve elimination. In the present article, we estimated reproduction number  for the measles data reported for the Fars province of Iran in 2001–03. Methods: We estimated by using sizes and durations of chains of measles transmission and the proportion of cases imported, when offspring distribution is either Poisson or geometric. In each case, we calculated the profile 95% confidence intervals. These comprised 575 cases, forming 191 chains of transmission, of which 79 had > 1 case. 128 cases were classified as importations. Results: The results using the Poisson and geometric distribution for offspring and the proportion of cases imported differed slightly, but all 3 methods gave an  < 1. The results were not sensitive to the minimum size and duration of outbreak considered, as long as single-case chains were excluded, or to exclusion of chains without a known important source. Conclusion: These results demonstrated that susceptibility to measles was beneath the epidemic threshold and that endemic transmission was eliminated.

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Volume 32, Issue 4 - Serial Number 4
44
December 2007
Pages 211-216

  • Received 25 May 2015
  • Revised 07 March 2021
  • Accepted 24 December 2018